Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height     

Fernando J. Mndez  Melisa Menndez  Alberto Luceo  Raúl Medina  Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.  相似文献   

相山铀矿田变质基底的变质作用期次   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

蒋振频  吴雅梅  董永杰  胡荣泉  吴水林 《铀矿地质》2008,24(1):32-37

相山铀矿田的变质基底,自晋宁期以来经历了长期而复杂的变质变形演化历史,至中生代为止,共经历了4个期次变质作用的叠加改造:中元古代区域热动力变质作用,中元古代后的热接触变质作用,中生代动力变质作用,中生代晚期的热接触变质作用.多期次变质作用的叠加改造,反映了本区自元古宙以来一直是一处地热异常区.相山地区铀成矿期的成矿作用,是一系列构造-岩浆-变质作用叠加的结果.  相似文献   

降水集中度的变化特征及影响因素分析——以山西为例     

袁瑞强  王亚楠  王鹏  王仕琴  陈宇宏 《气候变化研究进展》2018,14(1):11-20

基于山西14个站点1957—2014年逐日降水资料,计算年尺度与多年尺度下的降水集中指数（CI）和极端降水指数（R_95p和R_99p),利用统计方法,研究了山西降水集中度的时空变化和影响因素。结果表明,CI值与R_99p显著正相关,CI值增大则发生极端强降水几率增大。多年尺度CI值体现出明显的纬度地带性和较大的局地空间差异。受温带大陆性季风气候控制,山西省降水CI值介于0.59~0.64,相对亚热带地区较小,且变化范围较小。总体上年尺度CI值呈下降趋势,五台山、右玉、五寨、运城等站点下降趋势显著。盆地区域较高山高原区的CI值更大且下降趋势不显著,更易于发生极端降水事件。较高的高程和较大的变幅可增强高程对CI值的影响。太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）与年尺度CI值显著负相关。PDO冷位相时期,西太平洋副高西进、偏强,CI值偏高,发生极端强降水的可能性增大。本研究揭示了自然地理条件和海-气相互作用对区域尺度降水集中度存在复杂的影响。  相似文献   

超强厄尔尼诺事件对中国东部春夏季极端降水频率的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘明竑  任宏利  张文君  任鹏飞 《气象学报》2018,76(4):539-553

利用中国国家气象信息中心提供的中国地面逐日降水0.5°×0.5°格点数据集,研究了超强厄尔尼诺事件衰减年春、夏季中国东部极端降水发生概率的变化,并通过诊断超强厄尔尼诺自身及其衍生模态各自的水汽输送和垂直运动特征,探讨了超强厄尔尼诺事件对中国东部极端降水的影响机制。结果表明,超强厄尔尼诺事件衰减年春季,整个中国东部尤其是江淮以北地区,极端降水事件发生概率显著增大。同年夏季,长江流域极端降水发生概率比常规年份高出近1倍,而在华南和华北地区则相对减小。诊断分析显示,春季超强厄尔尼诺自身及其与热带太平洋地区年循环相互作用衍生出的组合模态（C-mode）均对降水的环流背景影响显著,热带太平洋西北部低空存在强盛的反气旋性异常环流,导致大量水汽在中国东部汇聚并上升,有利于该地区极端降水事件的发生。夏季,厄尔尼诺事件已经消亡,但与C-mode影响相关联的西北太平洋异常反气旋环流仍然存在,长江流域维持极端降水事件发生的有利条件。此外,研究也显示,超强厄尔尼诺事件衰减年春、夏季中国东部对流层中上层持续有异常经向风活动,频繁的南北冷暖气流交汇可能导致强对流事件发生次数增多,这也为该区域极端降水的频发提供了支持。   相似文献   

冬季北大西洋涛动与中国北方极端低温相关性的年代际变化     

韩方红  陈海山  马鹤翟 《大气科学》2018,42(2):239-250

本文基于中国地面气温日值网格数据集（V2.0）,采用滑动相关和相关分析等方法,揭示了冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）对中国北方极端低温影响的事实,进一步证实了东北后冬（1、2月）冷日（夜）与同期NAO相关性的年代际变化。研究发现:在20世纪80年代中期前,东北后冬冷日（夜）频发,与NAO的相关性较好,而在80年代中期后东北后冬冷日（夜）少发,与NAO的相关性减弱。其中,1月在1969~1988阶段,东北冷日（夜）与NAO的相关性最好,相关区域显著,相关系数可达-0.68（-0.66）,而在1989~2009阶段二者相关性最弱,相关区域不显著。进一步分析发现,在不同年代际背景下,NAO引起的大气环流异常是导致东北1月冷日（夜）与1月NAO相关性年代际变化的重要原因。相关性较好的年代,NAO引起的环流异常有利于冷涡等天气系统维持在贝加尔湖到东北一带,使东北地区气温偏低,冷日（夜）频发;相关性较弱的年代,不利于冷空气南下,使东北地区气温偏高,冷日（夜）少发。  相似文献   

Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

The present study aims to identify regions of extreme precipitation in mainland Portugal and to create a single index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). For this purpose, twelve extreme precipitation indices were selected from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices between 1950 and 2003. By considering only six extreme precipitation indices: R×1day, R×5day, SDII, R20, CWD and R95PTOT for the 10-year return period, between 1950 and 2003, the EPSI was developed to both annual data and meteorological season. The regionalization of extreme precipitation in Portugal were determined using a principal component analysis in T-mode. The results, show three spatial regions obtained from PCA. The three regions were analyzed separate. In the annual EPSI, the highest susceptibility areas are the mountainous regions in northern (e.g. Gerês, Peneda, Alvão, Marão and Montesinho) and central Portugal (e.g. Serra da Estrela), as well as in the Algarve (southern Portugal). Conversely, the lower susceptibility classes are in municipalities of the northeast, Alentejo and along the central-western coast. The results of EPSI show similar results in autumn and winter. In spring, however, the high susceptibility class increases in the Lisbon region and in the Sado Basin. In summer, there is an increase in susceptibility in the northeast, while susceptibility is low over much of Alentejo and Algarve, where precipitation is neglectful. This work presents a first attempt to implement this type of index for mainland Portugal. The first results are very promising, showing a consistent representation of the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation susceptibility. The combination of this information by municipalities can be of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.  相似文献   

2000年以来黑龙江省浓雾气候特征及秋季浓雾天气异常环流特征     

赵玲  齐铎  李树岭  张月 《气象科技》2017,45(1):102-107

探讨了黑龙江省2000年以来浓雾时空分布特征以及秋季浓雾异常环流特征和环流分型。结果表明：黑龙江省浓雾春季和冬季少,夏季最多,但多发生在山区,持续时间短,局地性强;范围大、持续时间长、灾害重的浓雾天气主要出现在秋季,其中10—11月持续性浓雾天气过程均发生在2010年以后。黑龙江省秋季浓雾多发生在暖湿空气较强的环境条件下,根据500 hPa高度场和距平场特征把秋季偏暖背景下浓雾发生的主要环流型分为西低东高型和纬向型,黑龙江省中低层正高度距平、850 hPa距平风场上反气旋环流以及西北太平洋副热带高压常偏北偏强等异常环流特征对浓雾中短期预报有较好的指示意义。  相似文献   

THE CONTRASTS BETWEEN STRONG AND WEAK MJO ACTIVITY OVER THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN PACIFIC IN WINTER     

陈雄  李崇银  谭言科  郭文华 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2017,23(2):133-145

This paper investigates the contrasts between strong and weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity over the equatorial western Pacific during winter using the NCEP reanalysis data. It is shown that the MJO over the equatorial western Pacific in winter shows significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities. During the winters with strong MJO activity, an anomalous cyclonic circulation lies east of the Philippines, strong anomalous easterlies control the equatorial eastern Pacific, and anomalous westerlies extend from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in the lower troposphere, which strengthens the convergence and convection over the equatorial western Pacific. The moisture convergence in the lower troposphere is also enhanced over the western Pacific, which is favorable to the activity of MJO. Eastward propagation is a significant feature of the MJO, though there is some westward propagation. The space-time spectral power and center period of the MJO are higher during strong MJO activity winters. The anomalous activity of MJO is closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). During strong MJO activity winters, there are positive/negative anomalies at high/low latitudes in both sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height, and the temperature is lower over the central part of the Chinese mainland, which indicates a strong EAWM. China experiences more rainfall between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, but less rainfall south of the Yangtze River. The SSTA is negative near the Taiwan Island due to the impact of strong EAWM and shows a La Ni?a pattern anomaly over the eastern Pacific. During the weak MJO activity winters, the situation is reversed.  相似文献   

Resilience to disaster: Evidence from American wellbeing data     

《Global Environmental Change》2023

As the severity and frequency of extreme weather events become more pronounced with climate change and the increased habitation of at-risk areas, it is important to understand people’s resilience to them. We quantify resilience by estimating how disasters in the US impacted individual wellbeing in the initial weeks and months post-disaster, and whether the effect sizes differed by individual- and county-level factors. The methodological approach contrasts changes in wellbeing in counties affected by disasters with that of residents in unaffected counties of the same state. We find that people’s hedonic wellbeing is reduced by approximately 6% of a standard deviation in the first two weeks following the event, with the effect diminishing rapidly thereafter. The negative effects are driven by White, older, and economically advantaged sub-populations, who exhibit less resilience. We find no evidence that existing indices of community resilience moderate impacts. Our conclusion is that most people in the US have a resilient response to extreme weather events.  相似文献   

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Europe Blocking and Their Impacts on Extreme Snowstorms: A Review     

Yao Yao  Luo Dehai 《地球科学进展》2016,31(6):581-594

Large-scale, low frequency modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and blocking, have an important modulation on the northern hemisphere weather and climate. In this paper, the physical mechanism studies on inter-decadal and decadal variability of NAO and blocking were summarized. The relationship between NAO regime transitions and the interannual variability of NAO in winter during was examined by using a statistical approach. The time-space relationship between NAO and European blocking were discussed. Based on two extreme cold and snowstorm events, the impacts on local weather especially the extreme events within the life cycle (two weeks) of the NAO and blocking were further examined. It was found that the frequently occurrence of the Eurasian extreme snowstorm was closely related to the special combination of NAO and blocking regime. In addition, the development of theoretical modes for NAO and blocking was discussed and issues that remain to be solved were proposed.  相似文献